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Manuel Rodríguez's avatar

I have the feeling that if Iran where to agree on a ceasefire with Israel or USA, the very it's done they will unleash takfiris and minority separatists along with airstrikes.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

They’ve already unleashed the Takfiris in the southeast. They are working on the separatists right now. They’re only active in the southeast now. There are two groups of separatists in the northwest and some in the southwest and southeast.

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Manuel Rodríguez's avatar

Also mention. They probably will feel very embolden after Syria and Libya. Iran should keep pounding Israel, since there's were I imagine they will outsource their war making efforts.

If they can keep the militants under control and disuade air bombings, it would be a matter that countries like Russia or China deliver supplies so they can stay afloat.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

China is arming them as we speak. Yes the regime change is bullshit. All they do is put in puppets like in Iraq and Syria. The goal for Libya was a failed state.

They created failed states wracked with endless wars, mostly states fighting Western Takfiris like in Iraq, or Takfiris ruling like in Libya and Syria.

In Syria and Iraq Western Takfiris were tasked with the extermination or destruction of the Shias in the Arab World in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and now in Yemen with Western Takfiris massacring the Shia there.

There are Shia in Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. They are badly persecuted in Bahrain and Saudi

Arabia but there is no extermination or destruction of the Shia project as in the Levant and Mesopotamia, nor are Takfiris present.

There Shia are armed in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain but not much happens other than the Saudis can’t go in there with security forces on punitive raids to arrest people for prison or execution. When they try that the whole neighborhood opens up on them.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, the US, the UK, and Israel are all involved in the project of destroy or exterminate the Shia in the Levant. They also want attacks on Christians in Syria.

This plot started in 2007 with an article by Seymour Hersh that said the US project now was to use Takfiris to destroy the Shia in the Levant and Mesopotamia.

It’s really sickening frankly.

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Manuel Rodríguez's avatar

That's a thing that they're seeking to work on Iran.

There's still no noticeable publicity in that strategy, but I know that they hold their cards hidden when they feel it's their triumph card.

It honestly it's the most dangerous thing right now, in my opinion. Not only they have the preexisting terrorist and separatist groups inside of various areas, but they have a sizeable amount of reserve Salafists in the exterior.

Iran's focus probably would be to maintain and acquire air defenses, preferably dismantle sleeping cells and maintain economical stability.

They probably won't be providing air support as overtly as they did with Libya and Syria since Iran has scalation capability.

What I would imagine is that the West would conduct missile and even some airstrikes sporadically through civilian and security sites in Iran, but via Israel. And pour a big amount of militant troops. Mossad assets would be tasked on performing sabotage and try to instill chaos in the population.

This sort of thing can be done in the long run, but I feel they would want to do it as a blitzkrieg operation. They won't announce they will give democracy on Iran and free the oppressed minorities until they feel they have been weakened enough or have enough assets prepared to do a big push.

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GG's avatar

Good article Robert - an interesting perspective.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Thanks! It was hard to format.

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GG's avatar

I think Iran will just buy nukes from North Korea - shit why not lol

I also think the chances of a dirty bomb type attack on Israel have gone up massively.

The Iranians are really pissed off

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Dirty bombs are useless. North Korea said they will GIVE them one.

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Manuel Rodríguez's avatar

Medevev mentioned something on that topic.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Yes!

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Frank Sterle Jr's avatar

If Iran militarily surrenders, as U.S. President Donald Trump demands/ed of the nation, it may soon also have to surrender access to its vast fossil fuel reserves to American corporate interests, and likely soon followed by British energy companies. Those corporations, and Israel’s government, know there's still much to be effectively appropriated.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution's expulsion of major Western nations was in large part due to British and American companies exploiting Iran's plentiful fossil fuel. The expulsion may have been a big-profit-losing lesson learned by the energy-corporation heads, one that they, via intense lobbyist influence over the relevant governments in Washington D.C. and London, would resist reoccurring anywhere.

The 2003-11 U.S./British invasion and prolonged occupation of Iraq may also have been partly motivated by such Western insatiable corporate greed. According to AI Overview, “some [U.S.] companies did secure lucrative contracts for oil services and exploration in Iraq following the war.” Also, “British oil companies, particularly BP, significantly benefited from the Iraq War by gaining access to and exploiting Iraq's vast oil reserves.”

There has been a predictable American-UK proclivity for sanctioning Iran, its officials and even their allies since the Revolution, resulting in, among other negative impacts, reduced oil production revenue by the nation. It would be understandable if those corporate fossil-fuel interests would like Iran’s government to fall thus re-enabling their access to Iran’s resources.

It may be that, if the relevant oil-company heads were/are in fact against Iran's post-Revolution government(s), then so were/are their related Western governments and, via general mainstream news-media support, national collective citizenry.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Good point. Everything in this world is so complicated!

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Manuel Rodríguez's avatar

I believe they already setting the paperwork to close the strait. Something Khamenei and the ministry. You can say that you're in the right to do a blockade since you're in conflict with an enemy nation. Also, USA trying to counter it would not look as good as if Iran send barrages on their based and they decided to strike back.

I also believe this would be the optimal course of action since it wouldn't just screw up USA and Israel, but also the collective west and traitorous Arab governments that were complicit on the Israeli strikes on Iran that are trying to use plausible deniability.

I remember that when Russia's nuclear assets were attacked, the internal focus was to simply focus the Ukrainian war until their military capitulation and see where they can get back on them somewhere else.

A slow and steady attrition with some external support seem to be best versus the shock and awe tactics the West and Israel always seem to provoke.

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Frank Sterle Jr's avatar

Israel and the IDF under Netanyahu — which, BTW, is not his real name — bombs and destroys targets, including civilians, inside nations around it, not to mention assassinates foreign citizens who Israel deems a threat.

Not that long ago, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus last April that killed, among others, senior Iranian generals; and then Israel brazenly warned Iran against retaliating, with U.S./Canadian/British news-media headlines referencing it as though Iran's retaliation would be the first, war-instigating strike. They behaved like, to use a Trumpian slander, “crooked media”.

This all reveals a great yet misplaced sense of entitlement by the Israeli state, not to mention that of the U.S. via its own corrupt foreign policy. It’s as though it feels it can claim it was being proactive in its militarily unprovoked killings in another country of Iranians [or other foreign nationals] it deems a threat, and its suspicions should suffice as justification. But, morally and ethically at least, they really don't.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Frank please don’t post AI written comments here. I will ban you if you keep doing it. No hard feelings brother.

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Manuel Rodríguez's avatar

Did you check with an AI detector? There is something about the writing that feels unnatural.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

I could tell with this one! Do NOT use AI in your comments folks! I ban on that. If you use AI put it in your own words please.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Great comment! You’re the best!

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Breaking news folks. Three Iranian missiles just hit our base in Qatar and Iran is now firing missiles at our bases in Kuwait and Bahrain!

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GG's avatar

I don't think the Iranians will cut off their own oil and NG sales - why would they fuck themselves like that?

The PRC is their main customer.

They really don't have a lot of options here - maybe some low-grade attacks on US bases.

They do have lots of high-tech missiles left - why have they not used them?

Maybe they are trying to deplete Israeli air defenses with less effective missiles before the big attack?

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

They really don't have a lot of options here - maybe some low-grade attacks on US bases.

Already happening.

They do have lots of high-tech missiles left - why have they not used them?

Maybe they are trying to deplete Israeli air defenses with less effective missiles before the big attack?

They've used some of their best missiles already.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

They may be making arrangements to let the Russians and Chinese ships go through the strait.

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Manuel Rodríguez's avatar

Russia and China had deal with the Houthis to transverse the red sea.

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Robert Lindsay's avatar

Yes! They can do the same with the strait. 57 ships already turned around.

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