Escalation Risk Matrix for Iran-US War

Something I cooked up here. Enjoy.

Risk Matrix

Risk  Impact  Example               Notes   

Missile strike on U.S. base

High  Medium  Al-Asad/Al Udeid hit  Managed escalation likely                   

Hezbollah-Israel conflict        

Medium-High  High  Barrage from Lebanon/Israeli air war  Major risk of regional war  

Strait of Hormuz closure   

Medium  Very High  Naval mines, ship seizure  Would spike oil prices globally

Cyberattack  on critical infrastructure

Medium  High  Disruption of U.S. ports, oil pipelines  Often deniable, hard to counter  

Proxy war via Iraqi militias 

High    Medium  Rocket/mortar attacks on U.S. convoys and bases Already occurred historically

Direct Iran–U.S./Israel war   

Low     Catastrophic  All-front missile exchange  Only if red lines crossed    

Oil market shock ($100+/barrel)

Medium  High  Result of Hormuz tension or proxy sabotage  Likely temporary unless full war 

Terror attack on foreign soil  

Low-Med  High  Targeting U.S./Israeli diplomats  Iran has long-range c…