Escalation Risk Matrix for Iran-US War

Something I cooked up here. Enjoy.

Risk Matrix

Risk Category   Probability Impact       Example          Notes   

Missile strike on U.S. base  

                High        Medium       Al-Asad/Al Udeid hit Managed escalation likely                   

Hezbollah-Israel conflict        

                Medium-High High         Barrage from Lebanon/Israeli air war Major risk of regional war  

Strait of Hormuz closure   

                Medium      Very High    Naval mines, ship seizure Would spike oil prices globally

Cyberattack  on critical infrastructure

                Medium      High         Disruption of U.S. ports, oil pipelines Often deniable, hard to counter  

Proxy war via Iraqi militias 

                High        Medium       Rocket/mortar attacks on U.S. convoys and bases Already occurred historically

Direct Iran–U.S./Israel war   

                Low         Catastrophic All-front missile exchange Only if red lines crossed    

Oil market shock ($100+/barrel)

                Medium      High         Result of Hormuz tension or proxy sabotage Likely temporary unless full war 

Terror attack on foreign soil  

                Low-Med     High         Targeting U.S./Israeli diplomats Iran has long-range capabilities

Summary:

* Iran is more likely to use proxy and asymmetric warfare than direct conflict.

* Shipping, energy markets, and regional stability are key pressure points.

* The next 5–10 days are the most critical for gauging escalation or containment.