Questions Continue about the Integrity of the 2024 Elections

Update 12:05 AM PST November 15, 2024: I am reposting this popular post because it had to get a massive rewrite due to new information.

I learned new things about an Economic Times article falsely stating that that the last national exit poll on E-Day showed Harris up by four points.

They were confused about what an exit poll is and they were referring to the final early voting exit poll done 5-6 days before the election. Therefore my conclusions have changed.

However, combining the early voting and E-Day exit polls still indicates that Harris may have won the popular vote by 2.1 points. I cannot yet make any conclusions about the electoral vote.

I need someone to look over Gregory Geisler, Jenny Cohn, and Stephen Spoonamoore’s Twitter accounts for me because I have a lifetime ban from Twitter over nonsense. All three are doing great work on this.

Also if any of you can afford a sub, that would really help me out as I’m retired and live off of a Social Security check.

Introduction: My conclusion is that the “Nine (or 15) million Democrats stayed home” theory in this election is demonstrably false.

If that’s true then the only possible conclusion is that there was Republican election fraud in the popular vote via voting machines. Unfortunately, I cannot prove that yet.

The discrepancy between combined exit polls and results is 4.3 points. That is ~nine million votes. As you can see the discrepancy completely accounts for the fake nine million missing Democrats.

I’m not a biased person. I support “radical truth.” If Trump won it, I’d tell you.

Polls and exit polls are just wrong. Yet they were right on the money for decades before voting machines. What happened to make them go off after the onset of voting machines?

Republicans are lying about their vote or not answering in exit polls and polls. Why were they never lying before? Did they suddenly start lying after the onset of voting machines? We surveyed this and Republicans are not more likely to lie on polls, just like it was before.

Polls are missing lots of hidden Republican voters. Or instead the Democratic totals have been hacked to reduce votes? Why were there no hidden Republicans before voting machines? Why did the hidden Republican voter issue start with the voting machines?

There’s no evidence for election theft. Karl Rove is on record admitting to a colleague in 2013 that the Republicans had been stealing elections since 2000 with the HAVA Act. He said they could only steal a few points because any more would look suspicious.

But in 2020 in Wisconsin they stole nine points from the Democrats. For prior election theft in 2016, see these careful analyses here, here, here, and an affidavit submitted in court here.

The great Jonathan Simon wrote a book called Code Red:Computerized Elections and the Threat to American Democracy about how Republicans have been stealing elections since 2002. He presents immaculate evidence for Republican election theft via voting machines.

Over on Twitter, Simon posted:

Actually, I haven't checked out. Just wearing a different hat as a journalist. But still crunching numbers. E2024 big picture raises lots of questions - trying to get a numerical, analytical handle. I'll update with anything solid. We've been here before - each time worse.

Simon says that the big picture “raises a lot of questions.” That means it looks suspicious but he can’t yet prove evidence of fraud.

He also said, “We’ve been here before,” meaning Republicans stole elections since 2002, and “each time it’s worse” implying they steal more votes over time. This implies that he suspects fraud but he can’t prove it. He’s a very science-minded man with a degree in Statistics.

About the integrity of the elections, a poster, bigcountybump, says our elections have absolutely zero integrity. Here I paraphrase:

Because the results are top secret, not accessible, and not auditable, so there is no evidence to examine. That means there is no evidence the vote counts are correct. Vote ‘counts’ are faith-based. There are no chain of custody or other checks on any counts. Sad, but facts.

You see that? We can’t even look at the computer voting machine results to see if they are accurate or not. The results are secret and apparently belong to the voting machine companies, and the voting machine companies say that’s their private property.

We also cannot look at the source code for the voting machines because the companies also say that’s private property.

So there’s no way to even audit the results because there’s nothing to audit unless you hand-count the ballots. Running the ballots through the machines again is fruitless because if the election was stolen, it will just come back the stolen result.

There are no chain of custody or any other checks either. It’s the voting machine companies saying, “Trust us bro.”

What are some tests we could use to see if the polls and pre-election polls are really going off? We could look at other countries. We also need to do a lot more study of exit and pre-election polls historically in the US and in other lands to see how accurate they truly are.

Also there are US states that mandate hand-counted paper ballots. I assume that the Republicans could not steal those elections. If the polls and exit polls are still going off in documented free and fair elections, then something is wrong with the polls and exit polls.

I believe in the last election, Virginia had hand-counted paper ballots, and both the pre-election and exit polls lined up very well. We can do statistical analyses until we are blue in the face, but it probably won’t get us anywhere because it’s never worked before.

On Twitter another poster, Gregory Geisler, says:

Apparently! I have tried to push it, but neither the Dems nor the MSM will even consider the possibility. The initial reaction is that it is a conspiracy theory. But when you read his book it makes perfect sense.

He tried to show people in the media and Democratic Party evidence of the fraud, and they refused to listen to him and said it’s all a conspiracy theory. This is the result I got too.

The Democratic Party won’t even look into this issue because it would undermine faith in our elections process. Here is their insane logic:

• Elections are being stolen by Republicans via voting machines.

• Say we discover and prove that Republicans have been stealing elections for 22 years (our system is already undermined).

• This causes people to lose faith in the elections process.

• Republicans keep stealing elections forever.

That’s real stupid! But this is the Democratic Party’s line, incredibly enough. Obviously the party is willing to consign itself to losing elections forever. These people are insane.

Or we investigate it, discover the fraud, deal with the loss of faith (which was already gone anyway with the election fraud), put the system back right, and Democrats can start winning elections again.

Another poster writes:

Looking forward to your thoughts and analysis - Spoonamore makes a compelling case.

Stephen Spoonamore of Global Strategic Partners, which specializes in secure network architecture for large international corporations, conclusively proved that the 2004 Ohio election was stolen by Republicans with the help of the crooked Black Secretary of State.

His court affidavit proving that the results were mathematically impossible is here.

Here is Spoonamore insisting that the 2024 election was hacked at the tabulation level.

The 2024 Election was hacked at the tabulation level. I have a 25 year career, finding and/or conducting such hacks. It's easy-ish to do. GOP/Trump-Putin/Musk all have the resources, motivation and access to do it.

Hand recount the 2 oddest precincts in each county. Solved. Here is what you are seeing. The Tabulation Systems at the County level were hacked far in advance of the election. The hack was probably written into the code even before the code was installed.

It will have a WHEN function and IF/THEN functions to have the machine force balance to a given outcome within a specific window of time. You could test the machines 1000 times before election night, and the result will be correct.

If you run it during the time window, the force balancing will be turned on and regardless of inputs you will get a programmed output. It is very simple to prove this. Take the two most outlandish precinct results from any county and just hand-count the ballots.

They won't match the tabulation outputs. From what I am seeing, you will find 8-11% avg. shifts from Dem to Rep. Be sure to check heavy Red areas, easier to cover up a run up of the score.

That was how it was done in Ohio vs. Kerry - GOP flips in already highly red areas. Now, why the Bomb-Threats? They were NOT to allow for hacker access.

The programming was already in place, they were to break Chain of Custody and produce legal grounds to not trust a recount.

Every place that GOT a bomb-threat is a place the courts will now have to consider the factual argument of whether the ballots COULD have been tampered with while the evacuations were going on. They weren't.

But that is the argument the GOP will make to prevent recounts. And finally, let me say again, this is a simple, stupid, easy to prove hack.

Hand Count most suspected two Precincts in each county. They won't match. And FWIW, I am currently working on a much harder hack larger in scale and much better executed. This election hack is just about political will.

The problem with Spoonamore’s assertion that the vote was hacked at the tabulation level is that he offers no evidence for this that I can see other than a number of 8-11% shifts from Democrat to Republican. That’s interesting but could it not have occurred naturally?

Another Twitter poster, The Wonder Years, writes:

Dems set themselves up to fail by defending the 2020 election process as sacrosanct. Questioning the process now looks so suspicious. McConnell wanted Trump to lose so he didn't mess with his results. The rest of the races, though...

I thought this at the time. Also in 2020 the Republicans absolutely stole three points off the Democratic total so Biden won by five points when he should have won by eight points. I can prove this too. The hack probably went in before the election.

I looked at the 2020 results and there were serious, often very serious, red shifts all across the board in most states. There might have been a blue shift or two, but that’s nothing to worry about.

The 2020 pre-election and exit state polls lined up reasonably well but not perfectly. Some were remarkable - the Wisconsin result was off by nine points from the exit and pre-election polls. Statistically that would be a very rare result.

But the clincher was that whatever the results by state, the 2020 national pre-election and exit polls lined up immaculately. This is what happened in the pre-voting machines era.

The 2020 pre-election polls found that Biden was at +7.8 points. The exit polls showed him at +8.2 points. In other words, he won by eight points. Both results are wildly outside the margin of error (2.5% for exit polls), so far outside that they are statistically rare on their own.

That’s if one was off. That they should both be off is much more rare. But that they should both be off by almost exactly the same result is a near-statistical impossibility. That they lined up immaculately shows the accuracy of both pre-election and exit polls in 2020.

But see above for how Republicans seriously corrupted the pre-election polls this year, showing Harris winning by a much lower margin than she probably was.

I can assure you with complete confidence that based on those results, it is a proven fact that Biden won in 2020 by eight points. No other conclusion is possible.

The 2020 final result was Biden at +5, so the Republicans stole six million votes from Biden. The hack to steal three points probably went in before the election as they often do.

The wild 2020 Democratic turnout of 81 million which MAGA finds impossible is therefore proven to have been 87 million, 15 million more than the Democratic turnout in this election. Did 15 million fewer Democratic voters really sit this election out? Forget it!

The problem in 2020 is that Trump couldn’t keep a secret. Ever noticed that? He always gives it away, usually by projection.

Remember the endless talk about Democrats stealing elections with the voting machines when really it was the Republicans who tried and failed to do just that? See? That’s the tell. Every accusation is a confession with Trump.

The Democratic response, to defend our massively stolen and corrupted elections as free, fair, and sacrosanct, was catastrophically bad because it makes it that much harder for us to prove any fraud.

This time around there was another tell. Remember how Trump repeatedly told shocked audiences that he didn’t even need their votes and he didn’t care whether they voted or not? He repeatedly said:

We already have the votes we need.

I’ve never heard a politician say that before when the polls were that close. That implies that he knew a fix was in to steal the election. If you’re going to steal the election, it doesn’t matter if people vote for you or not.

He also said that he and Mike Johnson had a little secret. He’d tell us about it later. After he said that, someone next to him told him to shut up. Trump aide Miller assured Trump a few days before the election that he would definitely win.

Worse the whole campaign was run as if he didn’t care if he won or not. What about the endless outrages, insane statements, 45 minutes fellating a microphone and swaying to stupid songs, and the total lack of campaigning in the last two weeks of the election?

All four examples above imply pre-knowledge of an election fix before the fact.

Harris had far more money. Her ground game was superb and his never got off the ground. Her rallies were packed and some of his rallies were only half-full. Audiences acted bored by his dementia-addled ramblings and often started to leave before the rally was over.

The Harris campaign showed extreme levels of enthusiasm. Democratic enthusiasm has not been this high since Obama in 2008.

If this election was stolen, I’m sure Trump knew about it. He certainly acted like a man who was going to win no matter the vote. Based on his their behavior at the time, I am certain Trump about the 2016 steal, and I also certain that Bush about the 2004 steal.

2008 was supposed to be stolen via Ohio by Karl Rove’s tell on network news a few hours in showing his certainty that Ohio would flip later in the evening. Presumably the Ohio hack did not work in that election. I assume these hacks don’t always work.

In addition, in 2016, number of Trump’s aides like Giuliani acted bizarrely confident in the final days of the race, especially about Michigan where they were three points behind.

In 2016, every pre-election poll in the week prior to the election showed Hillary winning Michigan, usually by at least three points. It’s statistically impossible for all those polls to have been wrong, and that’s a conclusive fact showing Trump stole Michigan in 2016.

A Look at the 2024 Elections

My previous analysis of national exit polls was from The Economic Times, a paper out of India. It stated that the final national exit poll showed Harris up by four points. I assumed that that meant an exit poll done on E-Day.

However, it turns out that they were confused about what an exit poll is, and they were referring to the final national exit poll of early voting. This is where pollsters go to early voting places and interview voters leaving the voting booth.

However this final poll was apparently done five or six days before the election. All this poll shows is that final national exit polls of early voters shows that Harris was up by four points in national early voting 5-6 days before the election.

On the contrary, the best data I have seen on E-Day shows Harris winning by .1%, which is essentially a tied race.

To get at a good final exit poll of both early voting and E-Day voting, we would have to somehow combine the early voting exit polls with the E-Day exit polls because each one alone will show only partial results.

So therefore, about the exit polls:

National Early Voting Exit Polls Harris +4

E-Day Exit Polls Harris +.1

Statistical Results of exit polls Harris +2.1

Results Trump +2.1!

Discrepancy Trump +4.2 points! (MOE 2.5 points)

Now with pre-election polling:

National Pre-election Polling Harris +1

Results Trump +2.1!

Discrepancy Trump 3.1! (MOE 2.5?)

I would wager that that means the final result was somewhere in between the two exit polls, possibly with Harris winning the popular vote by 2.1 points.

If that is so, then the discrepancy between exit polls and final results is still 4.2 points, outside of the 2.5 point margin of error for exit polls.

Based on that, I tentatively conclude that Harris may have won the popular vote by 2.1 points. But I can’t prove it. The only way to prove it is by a hand-counted recount of ballots. I still can’t conclude anything about the electoral vote.

In addition, a three points discrepancy between exit polls and results is the internationally accepted benchmark to nullify an election. The discrepancies here are 3.1 points and 4.1 points.

There were no missing Democratic voters. Same stayed home, but many others voted.

This year the Republicans corrupted the pre-election polls by flooding us with fake polls showing Trump winning. So the national poll average showing Kamala winning by one point could have been her winning by four points with a lot of her lead taken away by fake Republican polls.

In addition, on November 2, CNN posted exit polls based on early voting in Georgia and North Carolina that covered 60% of registered voters. In these early voting exit polls, Harris led by six points in North Carolina and five points in Georgia.

Even with heavy Republican turnout on E-Day, it would be almost impossible for Trump to overcome those massive leads with an E-Day vote.

Next we need to look at each individual state and see how far the polls were off from the vote. Some cases were clearly anomalous. Ted Cruz was up by 1-2 points and he won by 8.6 points.

Rick Scott was up by a point or two and he won by 12.8 points. Ruben Gallego is only beating Kari Lake by 2.2 points, and he was up by 13 points in polls. None of those results can possibly be correct.

Now lets look at how many votes we are talking about here. The discrepancy between exit polls and national results is eight million Democratic voters. There are nine million missing Democratic voters and there is an eight million vote anomaly between exit polls and results.

The bizarre missing nine million Democratic voters can be more than explained by the eight million Democratic voter anomaly between exit polls and results in this election.

It’s assumed that nine million Democratic voters stayed home. Surely some stayed home. But even more showed up to vote. Now we have another theory that explains the conundrum, so we don’t have to take it for granted that nine million Democratic voters sat the election out.

Once again the state pre-election polls versus results showed that all dramatic anomalies were in favor of Republicans, and we have yet another red shift like we’ve been experiencing since 2000.

Outside the MOE, an incredible 28 states red-shifted, 18 had no shift, and only one blue-shifted. That is so implausible as to be nearly statistically impossible. A typical election might have 3-4 states red or blue shifted, but having 29 color shifted seems impossible.

Weren’t early exit polls already showing Trump ahead? I’m not sure. We really need to look into this.

Did nine million Democrats really sit home? Keep in mind it is really 15 million if we count the 2020 election fraud.

There were reports of an increase in Democratic registrations this year over 2020. The Democratic early vote was huge, off the charts, many states set records for early voting, there were a record number of first-time voters, and there was record to heavy turnout across the land.

People observing the early turnout were stunned, especially at the huge numbers of women turning out. Micheal Moore made a post where he said it was “raining women” across the country. Many Democratic voters said “everyone they knew” voted.

People described the ground-level enthusiasm among Democrats as very high, driven by fears that Trump would be a fascist dictator. All reports seem to indicate a large if not huge Democratic turnout around the country.

For the Democrats stayed home theory to be correct, we should have seen dramatically lower numbers of Democrats turning out across the land. This should have been starkly observable. But I’ve yet to see a single report stating this. Apparently we are seeing the opposite.

Based on anecdotal data, the “Nine (or 16) million Democratic voters stayed home” theory is false. The polling-results anomaly implies instead that zero Democratic voters stayed home or those who didn’t vote were more than balanced by those who did.

Were the discrepancies across the board or only in certain areas? Looking at the results, even the results in blue states were quite low for Harris. She should have won by more than that. Totals in red states were shockingly high, with many dramatic red shifts.

The overall picture really does look like either nine million votes were sucked away from the Democrats by fraud across the board or nine (or 15) million Democrats did indeed sit home. Yet we know based on anecdotal evidence that the “voters stayed home” theory is false.

The results are in line with a “Democrats stayed home” theory because the missing Democratic votes are across the board from blue to red to swing states. One wonders how fraud or a hack would have hit most states. But I suppose it’s possible.

Conclusion: Analysis shows an 4.2 point anomaly between the national exit polls, both early voting and E-Day, and the final result. A three point discrepancy between exit polls and results is considered the international standard for nullifying an election.

This is explained by a “Nine (or 15) million Democrats stayed home” theory but anecdotal evidence shows that this theory is false on its face. The only possible conclusion is that Harris may have won the popular vote by 2.1 points as exit polls indicated.

In addition, discrepancy between early voting exit polls and results was 9.4 points in North Carolina and 7.2 points in Georgia. Even with heavy Republican turnout on E-Day, it would be almost impossible to overcome those huge leads.

Nevertheless, we have no hard evidence of Republican voter fraud in the popular vote, although there are grounds for suspicion. The only way to get that proof would be to do hand counts of ballots in suspicious states to see if the results line up with the machine results.

If the results prove Trump won, fine. We can move on. More work needs to be done before we can draw any conclusions, but the suspicious result mandates a careful recount insure that the results are correct.

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