Harris Won the Popular Vote by 2.1 Points: A Theory Suggested by the Variance between Combined National Exit Polls and Results

3:08 AM November 18, 2024: This article has undergone a significant rewrite. I now believe that Harris won the popular vote by 2.1 points based on combined early and E-Day exit polls.

The last exit poll of early voters showed Harris ahead +4. The final pre-election poll showed Harris +1. The final exit poll showed Harris +.1 point. If we combine the early voting and E-Day exit polls, we have Harris +2.1 based on all exit polls. Trump won by +1.7.

The combined exit polls were off by 3.8 points. Exit polls that vary by more than three points from the results are the international benchmark for nullified elections. Based on the variance, by international standards, this election should have been nullified.

An exit poll should not be varying that much, especially a national one that averages 50 states together. Statistically it would be unusual but not impossible for an exit poll to go off by 3.8 points. By international standards that variance would be grounds for a nullified election.

Ba…